Terror 22 Black footed ferrets

Dore “Raven”
https://hyperallergic.com/102457/rediscovering-the-dark-splendor-of-gustave-dore-with-edgar-allan-poe/   downloaded Feb 18, 2018
It is the 12 of April 2018.  Don’t let the title or lead image mislead you.  This is a happier one.  It’s a success story.  We are not in dire peril from black footed ferrets.  Maybe we can learn from them one day.
There was a time when the black footed ferret was extinct in the wild but still thrived in captivity.  Measures had been taken that would have assured the survival of these weasels, but there were none left in the wild to protect.   So over 4 years, 1991 through 1994 inclusive, captivity bred ferrets were released, a few dozen a year.  At first it didn’t seem to be going well.  The animals known to be living in the wild did not increase in number so the program was stopped.  By 1997 they gave up counting the few stragglers.


Rapid Population Growth of a Critically Endangered Carnivore.  M. B. Grenier, D. B. Macdonald and S. W. Buskirk  SCIENCE volume 317 10 August 2007 page 779 figure 1.  The vertical black bars are the number of black footed ferrets released.  The vertical grey bars are the number counted.  Years of release or counting are along the horizontal axis. 
Then in 2000 they did another count and found that there were still ferrets out there.  It had been six years since the last release, and those had done poorly over the years they were counted.  And now the growth of the population was very vigorous indeed.  
I wasn’t there, and they did not mention it, but I would assume that care was taken to assure a lot of Genetic Diversity among the released animals because that is a Good Thing.  I’m sure you understand my sarcasm and hope you can forgive it.
In the early days after the study I watched a program on the collapsing birth rate worldwide.  I wrote all of the authors and only one responded.  He seemed to think there was no such thing.  He new about the black footed ferret experience, so I pointed out that the explosive growth was not seen for some three to six years after the last release; all he could see was “exponential growth.”
At last he gave up on me.  Hmm.  Exponential growth, eh?  Let’s look a little closer.  There is a red line that shows a fair exponential growth curve and has been fitted by computer to give a best match.  Were growth truly exponential, the line would fit the tops of the grey bars perfectly, give or take noise.  But in fact, at the far left, the bars lie below the exponential growth curve, at or above it in the middle and then back to below at the end. 


Sure, it’s a trifling difference.  But I pulled one of my computer runs and selected a time when the virtual population was undergoing superficially exponential growth.  I calculated for each generation the percentage change in population size over the previous generation.  True exponential growth of course would have given bars that were all the same height.  Instead,


Offspring per parent in the computer simulation during rapid growth. Vertical axis is offspring per parent.  Horizontal axis is generations. 
There is a vote for my computer simulation of the underlying epigenetic process being on the right track. 
But the payoff, the really good news is this: in 2006 they noticed that the ferrets, having reached a size of between 200 and 300 individuals were beginning to break up the original colony and move out to establish new colonies.  They declared a victory for the operation and reported no further counts in the article. 
So what was the course of events?  For 4 years the team, with the best of intentions, kept throwing in new ferrets insufficiently related to each other and to the previous year’s crop.  Then they gave up and stopped punishing the little beasts.  Left on their own, the ferrets sorted it out (no problem with food; they eat prairie dogs, which are not so rare thereabouts one must assume) formed a community of excellent size AND appropriate diversity, and began to take over the world.
So it can be done.  It has been done.  Significant damage from outbreeding is not necessarily lethal.  Don’t I wish I knew how to get from here to there, maybe without even losing all the treasures of civilization. 

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